Housing: Inventory will Tell the Tale

Some factories might leave China, but in the grand scheme of things it doesn’t matter much

US Mortgage Rates Rise for the Ninth Time in Ten Weeks

by Calculated Risk on 11/10/2021 02:01:00 PM

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Inventory will Tell the Tale

Excerpt:

We are being flooded with housing stories. Will house prices decline or will price growth just slow? Does the US have a housing shortage? If mortgage rates rise to 4%, will that “halt the housing market” as Ivy Zelman said on CNBC?

Although my crystal ball is cloudy at this point, I believe inventory will tell the tale. That is why I watch inventory closely. Not just the monthly existing home sales report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and the monthly new home sales report from the Census Bureau. I also use weekly data from Altos Research (See Altos’ Mike Simonsen’s weekly presentation on YouTube).

And I track inventory and sales for 30+ local markets each month.
…
My Spidey senses are tingling, however it isn’t obvious why this time – or what the outcome will be.

But I believe one thing is certain: inventory will tell the tale!

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