by Calculated Risk on 1/04/2022 05:24:00 PM
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Will the unprecedented surge in investor purchases of SF homes continue?
Earlier I wrote about housing credit and delinquencies (neither are presently a concern). These are important topics but being overly focused on either is like fighting the last war (the housing bubble).
A new possible risk is all of the investor buying of single-family homes (including build-to-rent).
Now demographics are favorable for homebuying, and the concurrent pickup in demand for rental units is a bit of a mystery (see The Household Mystery). It appears we are seeing significant household formation with little population growth. And that would suggest the increase in household formation is not sustainable.
Meanwhile large investors are able to obtain financing at very low rates. … That is a 105% LTV (loan-to-value) based on BPOs (Broker Price Opinions – not appraisals). With this kind of financing, investors are incentivized to buy at almost any price. The buyers of the security are counting on the cash flow from renting those 3,836 homes. But what if demand for rentals soften?