by Calculated Risk on 3/16/2022 02:11:00 PM
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here starting at 2:30 PM ET.
Here are the projections. In December, most participants expected three rate hikes in 2022. Now, participants expect 7 rate hikes in 2022.
Wall Street forecasts are for GDP to barely increase in Q1 2022, and to be in the 2% to 3% range for 2022. This was a sharp reduction in Wall Street growth forecasts, and the FOMC lowered their 2022 forecast down significantly to similar growth rates.
1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
The unemployment rate was at 3.8% in February. So, there was a slight reduction in the unemployment rate forecast for Q4 2022.
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
As of January 2022, PCE inflation was up 6.1% from January 2021. The FOMC revised up sharply their inflation projections for 2022.
PCE core inflation was up 5.2% in January year-over-year and the FOMC revised up their projections.
