by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2022 02:12:00 PM
Here are the projections. In March, most participants expected seven rate hikes in 2022. Now, participants expect thirteen 25bp rate hikes in 2022.
Wall Street forecasts are being revised down for 2022 due to the ongoing negative impacts from the pandemic. the war in Ukraine and financial tightening. The FOMC lowered their 2022 forecast down to similar growth rates.
1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
The unemployment rate was at 3.6% in May. The FOMC increased their projections for the unemployment rate for Q4 2022.
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
As of April 2022, PCE inflation was up 6.3% from April 2021. The FOMC revised up sharply their inflation projections for 2022.
PCE core inflation was up 4.9% in April year-over-year. And the FOMC revised up their projections.