An Nvidia GeForce RTX 3060 Ti gaming graphics card.
Courtesy of Nvidia
Wall Street analysts are falling over themselves slashing their projections for Nvidia.
In April, Barron’s cautioned investors about
Nvidia
’s
(ticker:
NVDA
) fundamentals, citing rising inventories for its gaming graphics cards at retailers, unsustainable prices, and exposure to cryptocurrency mining. All three of those risks have come to fruition, according to analysts.
On Monday, Citi Research analyst Atif Malik lowered his target for the stock’s price to $285 from $315, citing weakening demand for gaming graphics cards. “We lower Oct-[quarter] gaming estimates on below seasonal PC demand and elevated retail inventory,” he wrote.
The latest data show demand for computers has deteriorated. Also Monday, the research firm IDC said worldwide shipments for personal computers fell 15% from a year earlier during the June quarter, the result of falling demand from consumers and supply-chain challenges.
In a separate note, KeyBanc analyst John Vinh had similar commentary. On Tuesday, he lowered his Nvidia price target to $230 from $250, citing slowing demand in a more difficult macroeconomic environment.
New Street analyst Pierre Ferragu, meanwhile, said Nvidia’s “crypto winter [is] materializing,” noting that the price of Ethereum has fallen 75% from its November peak. That spells trouble for the chip maker because miners use its cards to produce the cryptocurrency.
Now, the analyst said, cryptocurrency miners are dismantling their setups and selling their graphics cards on marketplaces for used gear, driving prices lower. As a result, he reduced his forecasts for revenue from Nvidia’s gaming segment by 17% and 18%, respectively, for the company’s fiscal third and fourth quarters, while maintaining his $220 price target.
Nvidia declined to comment on the analysts’ reports.
The company’s shares fell by 1% in early trading Tuesday to $149.91. The stock has declined roughly 50% this year, but the analysts aren’t ready to give up, regardless of the worsening environment. All three analysts reaffirmed their Buy or Overweight ratings for the chip maker.
They haven’t been alone. According to FactSet, about 80% of analysts have a Buy or Overweight rating on Nvidia shares, even as the share price has fallen significantly in recent months.
That raises the question of whether reading analysts’ reports is enough to keep investors out of trouble. They may want to closely follow developments in the business on their own as well.
Write to Tae Kim at tae.kim@barrons.com
